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Advanced Discussion on Avoidance

Discussion on Avoidance:

There are basically three types of dealing patterns you will experience at a blackjack table; The player wins several hands in a row (winning streak), the player wins, then loses, then wins, then loses, then wins, etc (yo yo pattern), and the player loses several hands in a row (losing streak).

The yo yo pattern is usually the one you "should" run into the most.  This pattern is a perfect fit for my system.  However, with the development of the automatic card shuffler the dealing patterns have been changing to the benefit of the casino.  I have seen patterns such as L,L, W, L, L, W, L, L, L, W, L, L..  And this type of pattern will certainly give you a long betting line that will play havoc on any bankroll. I will call this the "L" pattern.  This is a pattern where the dealer is winning 75% (or better) of the hands dealt.

The automatic card shuffler has done several things.  It is consistent in the way it shuffles and can produce consistent results, and it takes the human element (inconsistencies) out of shuffling.  This has all but eliminated the "clumping effect" caused by some dealers which could give a player the advantage when it is recognized. And it has almost eliminated the "hot" table in favor of the player.

So this is where AVOIDANCE becomes extremely important for the player to recognize and take appropriate action; leaving the table, taking a break, and leaving the casino are discussed in my eBooks. The practice of avoidance is a difficult practice to cultivate.  It takes extreme conditioning to put into practice.  The only other viable answer to this problem is a HEAVY bankroll.  And even with that you may then run into a table maximum bet problem.

So here is a suggestion that you will not find in any of my eBooks.  During a "L" pattern situation stop doubling and splitting hands.  This turns your blackjack game into an even money situation like betting at a roulette table.  It may take a toll on your betting odds but it will alleviate a strain on your betting line and bankroll during a "L" pattern dealing situation.

I also strongly suggest you revert to playing even money hands at a roulette table where you can use a card to help keep track of your betting line.

I also strongly urge you to keep practicing every day and keeping your own stats.  This information can be very powerful in comparing your practice stats and a casino's stats of live play.  Your practice stats should give you a feel for the norm.  And when it is not there at the casino then something is wrong.

For example, lets say a casino has found an automatic shuffler that combined with making the playing portion of the shoe less than normal with the cut card, produces an outcome of 75 to 80% wining hands for the casino during a shoe.  If this happens you may as well leave and not even play there because that is an unfair advantage to the dealer.  And I would call this manipulation. (cheating)

Hope this has given you some food for thought.

Bankroll:

I do not like telling a player what size bankroll one needs.  I like for them to find out by keeping stats from practicing as I describe in my eBooks.  But since casinos are continuing to increase the minimum I will give you somewhat of a guideline.

First I would never play at a table that does not have at least a $500 or more maximum wager (a $1,000 or more is desirable).

$5 minimum table: $300 to $500 buy in (I prefer an available bankroll of $2,000).

$10 minimum: $500 to $700 buy in (again with an available bankroll of $2,000)

$15 minimum: $700 to $1,000 buy in (an available bankroll  of $3,000)

$25 minimum: $1,000 to $1,500 buy in (available bankroll of $5,000)

$100 minimum: $2,000 to $3,000 buy in (available bankroll of $10,000)

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You may want to consider this technique: play at the smallest available minimum table available and quit when you win $30 to $50.  If you did this everyday for a month you should be spending less than a half hour at the casino but you will be winning about $1,000 every month.  Do this to help accumulate a sizeable bankroll where you can then play at a $100 table but quit when you win $300 to $500.  Do this every day for a month and you will have a good extra income for very little playing time.

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